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Working Paper Series No. 2012/ 23
The first series of the issues was for a total of $375 million at the official exchange rate (250, bonds, Bs1920/$, at Bs2,880,000 each).
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The Bank's reserves. 19,396,820. 15,662,247. 3. Foreign exchange rate differences. 24. (701,036). (803,547). 4. Retained earnings. 24.
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Exchange rate stability and expectation management under heterogeneous expectations
Downloadable (with restrictions)! This study develops a heterogeneous agent model comprising fundamentalists, chartists, carry traders, and stabilizers to determine the RMB exchange rate. The stabilizers act as agents of the central bank and relevant government agencies to manage expectations when the exchange rate appreciates or depreciates excessively. Using the unscented Kalman filter method, our study finds that the principal parameters of the heterogeneous agent model are statistically and economically significant, and the heterogeneous agent model can adequately characterize the main features of expectation management. Furthermore, the stabilizers can significantly reduce excess volatility and promote market exchange rates to their fundamental values. Additionally, the timing of the stabilizers' actions is consistent with that of the central bank's implementation of expectation management.
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